Bledisloe #1 - AUS v NZL, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, August 8th

[fatprop]

I don't really think that's a great team. But a couple of injuries have forced Cheika's hand in areas.

I see the Mumm/Horwill 2nd row being a weak point. Horwill was good against SA and I'm confident of what he can bring being adequate, but not dominant (we just lack superior locks) but I've got huge reservations about Mumm at lock.

I have reservations about getting 80 quality minutes out of either of them, between the two we can get a reasonable shift.

But that equation means Skelton doing 80 against an extremely mobile ABs who will bring on Sam Whitelock to ramp up that mobility in the last 30 minutes

I wouldn't be surprised to see Fardy moved to lock for a period (10 minutes) as Potgieter & Dennis did at the Tahs

 

[Marcelo]

Eh? You do know MHCS that Moala has already played for the All Blacks. In 2015.

I know, he played against Samoa in Apia. I saw the game. Its just a joke, for me he isn't a test player. It's like saying, Izzy Dagg is a good fullback for Scotland

 

[Lance Free]

Expectations eh? It does us in every time.

That said, this is probably the best chance we've had of beating them since the Brisbane win, but I just can't see it happening - man for man, they look too strong.

 

[KOB1987]

I'm not watching the website, I'm watching the forum

I was too, we got a tip off up higher ^^^

 

[FrankLind]

NMS to tear it up (hopefully)

 

[Strewthcobber]

I wonder if they will have Gits in the front line of defense or push him to the wing. I'm sure they'll have Kurindrani marking SBW and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line.

Anyone know what Mitchell's defence has been like this year? They'll probably have Foley on one wing, so it will depend on whether Mitchel or Gits is seen as the better defender at 10 (or rather next to the closest forward).

Having a winger who can actually kick will be a nice change as well

 

[Viking]

I wonder if they will have Gits in the front line of defense or push him to the wing. I'm sure they'll have Kurindrani marking SBW and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line.

Anyone know what Mitchell's defence has been like this year? They'll probably have Foley on one wing, so it will depend on whether Mitchel or Gits is seen as the better defender at 10.

Having a winger who can actually kick will be a nice change as well

It works moving one to the wing/fullback, albeit still an inconvenience but it seems to go okay. Moving both players would be very disruptive IMO.

SBW will get his chance to run at one for sure.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I don't really think that's a great team. But a couple of injuries have forced Cheika's hand in areas.

I see the Mumm/Horwill 2nd row being a weak point. Horwill was good against SA and I'm confident of what he can bring being adequate, but not dominant (we just lack superior locks) but I've got huge reservations about Mumm at lock.

It's unfortunate Higgers didn't take his chance because the Fardy/Pocock/Hooper backrow doesn't thrill me as Hooper is the only strong ball runner.

I personally wasn't totally thrilled with Foley against Argentina (due to the quality of opposition) but don't really have too much of an issue with him starting. I think Giteau at 12 will limit his effectiveness though.

I am also wary of the Horwill/Mumm locking combination. Horwill, on form this year, can be expected to start falling off his tackles as he tires, and Mumm really showed nothing in the hard stuff when he came on against the Argies. If changes aren't made until the last 15 minutes or so, we could well be schooled through the forwards. Can see the workload for Pocock in defense being immense.

Foley is not great, but is probably the better option atm over Cooper, but the combination with Giteau I think will prove to be a mistake against the likes of Carter, SBW and Conrad Smith. And it won't get any better with Beale on the bench.

Injuries may have played a part in this Wallabies' side, but I think there are some obvious improvements that can still be made.

 

[Viking]

The Mumm/Horwill combo is certainly an unknown but I feel they both deserve to to be there having both had successful cameos off the bench. Plus it allows us to play the 'Pooper' so I'm all for giving it a go.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I don't think that is our best team, but I can't wait to see how it goes.

My issues are the lack of a big forward ballrunner and the lack of size and physicality in the inside backs.

But still I'm super excited coming into this weekend. Bring it on!!
.

I'd suggest that Pocock has shown he is equal or better as a ball runner than the other options we have at No8 in the squad, but my concern is that he is going to be so overwhelmed in defense to make up for lack of intensity in our locks as the game progresses that he will be well and truly buggered and the ball running won't get the exposure it is due. Would also have preferred to see Palu on the bench as No8 cover.

Agree entirely with your view on the 10/12 channel.

 

[Viking]

I'd suggest that Pocock has shown he is equal or better as a ball runner than the other options we have at No8 in the squad, but my concern is that he is going to be so overwhelmed in defense to make up for lack of intensity in our locks as the game progresses that he will be well and truly buggered and the ball running won't get the exposure it is due. Would also have preferred to see Palu on the bench as No8 cover.

Agree entirely with your view on the 10/12 channel.

Except Hooper is there with Pocock who will be sharing a shit load of the tackling, (allowing Pocock to be the second man in).
Hooper will do a shit load of ball running too.

What are we actually losing? Skelton's ball running and dominate tackles? Well IMO Hooper makes more metres and line breaks and his tackling is one of the most dominate on the planet - I can't wait for him to put one of those low driving tackles on Read, McCaw or Retallick.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I wonder if they will have Gits in the front line of defense or push him to the wing. I'm sure they'll have Kurindrani marking SBW and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line.

Anyone know what Mitchell's defence has been like this year? They'll probably have Foley on one wing, so it will depend on whether Mitchel or Gits is seen as the better defender at 10 (or rather next to the closest forward).

Having a winger who can actually kick will be a nice change as well

Well, that amount of shuffling in defense is a sure fire recipe for disaster. I think the plan will be to have Foley defend on the wing with AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line (similar job to that done by Horne) and have Giteau continue at 12 with assistance from Pocock. That would put extra responsibility on Pocock because we can be sure as night follows day that SBW will take the opportunity to off load in Giteau's tackles all game long, except of course when he simply runs over or around him. I am concerned that Pocock will already be very busy defending for our locks after Horwill starts to tire. Mumm didn't really show much appetite for the hard stuff including defense in his last outing.

 

[KOB1987]

I like the apparent thinking behind the team - Pocock and Hooper running them around and terrorising them for 50 minutes and then Skelton and TPN appear..Whether it works or not is another matter!

With the entire planet saying 'they'll be running at the 10/12 channel all day' I'm pretty sure they've thought of how to counter that. And in turn I'm sure the AB's will strategise around the said counter..

 

[Viking]

Well, that amount of shuffling in defense is a sure fire recipe for disaster. I think the plan will be to have Foley defend on the wing with AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line (similar job to that done by Horne) and have Giteau continue at 12 with assistance from Pocock. That would put extra responsibility on Pocock because we can be sure as night follows day that SBW will take the opportunity to off load in Giteau's tackles all game long, except of course when he simply runs over or around him. I am concerned that Pocock will already be very busy defending for our locks after Horwill starts to tire. Mumm didn't really show much appetite for the hard stuff including defense in his last outing.

I don't think work-rate around tackling will be an issue. Hooper and Pocock often top the tackle counts by a large margin. If they are the guys doing most of the tackling that will give Fardy and Mumm a chance to pilfer - eyes will be on Hooper and Pocock.

 

[Thinker]

I have to say I wasn't as optimistic as many before and I'm even less so now. I can't see this 23 beating the ABs. I REALLY hope I'm wrong and look like an idiot, but it seems a bridge too far right. That said the ABs aren't in top form so anything is possible.

On a side note, we fielded our most capped team the other week. If anyone have the numbers handy, would this be our least successful test 23 we've fielded? Most of the squad (probably at least 15) have a winning record below 60% with a number of the key players below 50% when starting.

 

[Purce]

I wonder if they will have Gits in the front line of defense or push him to the wing. I'm sure they'll have Kurindrani marking SBW and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the line.

Anyone know what Mitchell's defence has been like this year? They'll probably have Foley on one wing, so it will depend on whether Mitchel or Gits is seen as the better defender at 10 (or rather next to the closest forward).

Having a winger who can actually kick will be a nice change as well

Mitchell's defense has been very good however I suspect they'll put AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) into 10/12 before Drew. Mainly because Drew has the best kick out of that backline so you'd think he will stay back and return serve. Also were the Wobs not playing Hooper in the back line off line outs? AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)/Hooper in the 10/12 channel will be able to handle SBW. I'd be more worried about the creative type players causing confusion and slipping through a misread from those two.

I'm sure Chieka has an adequate plan, he doesn't strike me as a fool.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Well, that amount of shuffling in defense is a sure fire recipe for disaster. .

It's what they've been doing all year, especially lineouts

Mitchell's defense has been very good however I suspect they'll put AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) into 10/12 before Drew. Mainly because Drew has the best kick out of that backline so you'd think he will stay back and return serve. Also were the Wobs not playing Hooper in the back line off line outs? .

Yep - Hooper played 10 in lineout defense against both Arg and SA. Gits at hooker v SA and Foley v Arg.
QC (Quade Cooper) at wing when he came on. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Kurindrani and Horne were the main midfeild defenders, though To'omua was in there when he was on.

More concerning is the scrum, there's nowhere to hide. Foley and Gits defended at 10 in those two games, though QC (Quade Cooper) stayed on the wing.

 

[Joeleee]

In terms of the 10/12 channel, like others have said, I think Foley will go to a wing, with AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) defending at 12 and Giteau at 10. I imagine they would then be relying on Hooper to protect the 10 channel from having to make too many one on one tackles with his shooting defense, and Pocock lurking behind to clean up any he misses/make some pilfers.

As for the general issue with hiding two sub par defenders, the Tahs have been doing it with Beale and Foley (and Giteau is a better defender than Beale). I know it's Test level and it's different, but at least we're not going in completely blind.

 

[something]

yeh not a real big fan of gits at 12 against sbw. i guess we're still trying to work it out but it looks like the blecks have fielded almost their best team and we... are experimenting. Would prefer lilo & tomane over mitchell and gits. i guess we shall see!

 

[Scoey]

The negativity from the Wallabies supporters is understandable given the lopsided count in the win/loss column over the years and while there has been the odd pumping, the gulf probably isn't as wide as most of you probably feel.

Looking at the points difference over the past paints a clearer picture.

Avg diff (last 10yrs): -9
Avg diff (last 5yrs): -10

Convincing wins to the All Blacks but not the reaming that some of you are predicting.

Break those up into home/away and the picture becomes a little clearer still.

Avg diff at home (last 10yrs*): -4
Avg diff at away (last 10yrs*): -16
Avg diff at home (last 5yrs): -3
Avg diff at away (last 5yrs): -16
* NB: I haven't considered the 3 games played in Japan in the home/away calcs.

So when playing at home, for the past decade, the average result has been a loss by 4 points.

Looking at form during this TRC and both the Wallabies and the AB's beat the Springboks in VERY close games, coming from behind in the final minutes to steal victory. Both the AB's and the Wallabies beat ARG by similar score lines. AUS: 4 tries to none, AB's: 5 tries to 2.

The Wallabies this season have been looking better than they have in a long time. They seem more committed to the game plan and each other. I sense a genuine 'buy-in' from all to the cause. We look fitter than we have in ages and are finishing matches strong which is an area that we seem to struggle against the AB's.

This game is well within the Wallabies grasp. Get on board!