Okay, some pre-match thoughts from a nervous AB supporter.
I think this is going to be an epic final. I think this will be a treat for anyone fortunate to watch it, and the only people who will be dissappointed come the final whistle will be the supporters of the losing team. Whilst my nerves would love a big All Black win, I don’t think fate will be so kind to Kiwis. And if we do win, I expect it to be by only a few points.
Whichever team best handles the extreme pressure and the emotion of this game will have a great advantage over the first 10-20 minutes, and will probably win the game. The All Blacks have looked relaxed and composed all week, but they will be under immense pressure come kickoff. A good start is imperative for both teams. If the French can start well then their self belief and confidence will soar. Conversely if the Abs start well I think French heads and spirits will drop. If the French are still within sight by half time then look out, because the Abs might start doubting themselves and that’ll be all this talented French team needs to gain the upper hand.
I have a bad feeling that injuries are going to play a role. Both teams have had long arduous campaigns, and both squads are carrying injured players. I am worried that both Read and McCaw have had serious injury concerns all season. Moreover, I think the Abs bench is relatively weaker than it has been in years gone by. Any injuries, especially to Read, McCaw, Weepu, Nonu, Thorn, Smith, Kaino or Franks could be devastating to NZ’s chances. I’m not sure why I have this feeling that injury will have a big impact on this game, but I do.
As is usually the case the battle of the breakdown will be match defining. And this will be largely decided by the tactics the teams employ and which team can gain momentum and get go-forward ball. I greatly respect the French backrow, and I think if they are supported by their mobile tight five, and the All Blacks fail to commit sufficient numbers to the breakdown (like what happened in the first half of this year's Brisbane 3N test), then the breakdown could be an area of concern for NZ. We all know how the French pack will approach this game. They will come out breathing fire, and will look to be as physical and aggressive as possible in the collisions. The AB pack needs to match their aggression and enthusiasm if we are to have a chance. Our tight five have operated well in general play all tournament, but tonight they will need to lift their game yet again, and provide support for our loosies at the breakdown.
Despite the the lack of success that the Wallabies had with the high kick, I think the French will look to test out Dagg and Kahui early. Nerves can do strange things to players, and the French short kicking game is a definite strong point. Our back three will need to communicate well, support each other, and show composure and accuracy.
France’s defense has been immense over the past few games, and I have no doubt that the Abs will have their work cut out penetrating the Bleu wall. Also, they will need to have some plans to counter the French line speed, including short kicks , inside balls and using the blind side. France’s defense against Wales reminded me a lot of their heroic defensive effort in Cardiff back in 2007, and like on that fateful day I fear the Abs are going to struggle to pierce a committed French defensive system.
Craig Joubert is clearly the best referee in rugby right now and his appointment to this match has been widely applauded. I think the French will want him to keep a very close eye on the ABs scrum, especially Woodcock's tendency to collapse and/or drop his bind on the oppositions feed. Whilst the ABs will be desperate for him to police the ruck, especially French players slowing down All Black ball in attack.
Overall, I think this game will be won by the team which works the hardest and plays with the most composure. Winnings RWCs is about executing basic skills and gameplans under immense pressure, and the team that can do this best will win. I’m nervous as hell, but I expect the Abs to win. However I have no doubt whatsoever that this talented French team will be well and truly ‘up’ for this game, and if they play their best rugby they will win.