Discussion in 'Shute Shield' started by Hugh Jarse, Sep 14, 2013.
Coach, have you worked it out yet?
Dave, I'll run it through the random number generator overnight, but from first glance it looks like the most significant difference is that the discount for long service has been reduced from 100% discount for 5 years or more service with the club to 50% discount for 8 years or more service with the club. There's also a new clause stating discounts cannot index players below 50% of their points.
I would think these changes are going to hit Uni (in particular). Under the old system Uni got virtually 100% discount for all their S15 players by the time they'd come through the colts and picked up S15 contracts. But now they can never drop below 8 points after 5 S15 caps.
Has there been any change in the total points for each grade?
[Please note I'm comparing 2014 to 2012 but I think last year was the same as 2012].
I think it will hurt the colts ranks more than grade??
We must remember with the change of structure, finishing earlier, how many Super Players will be coming back through the season now?
Good luck to the other clubs trying to nobble Sydney Uni, but I don't know whether their delegates are familiar with the Law of Unintended Consequences. Do they believe that it is only Uni which will be adversely affected by the changes, or do they regard that outcome as so important that they are prepared to inflict largely unpredictable damage on themselves to achieve it?
Uni will come back to the pack when they succumb to complacency and arrogance. It won't be because of crude attempts to nobble them. Their systems are sufficiently robust to adjust to changes.
There are clear signs of some clubs busily engaged in their own distinctive pursuit of excellence. They will rise to challenge Uni's supremacy while those who put their faith in rule fiddling are less likely to do so.
Changes to the Points System for Dummies. (by a dummy)
Cat A, Cat B, Cat C, and Cat F
2013 version: Aust Schoolboy in 2012 = 6 points
2014 version: Aust Schoolboy in 2012 or 2013 = 6 points.
2013 Version: Australian Schoolboy in 2011 = 4 points
2014 version: the 2014 equivalent (2012 Aust schoolboy) is now Cat D and worth 6 points
2013 version: 5 years with the club = 100% discount for Cat A, B, C, or D.
2014 version: 8 years with the club = 50% discount for Cat A, B, C, or D.
2103 Version: No definition as to what a season with the club is.
2014 Version: to qualify one of the 8 years, a season is a minimum of 8 games (although representative seasons count towards long service discounts).
2nd Grade Colts Points:
2013 version = Max of 35 points.
2014 version = Mac of 30 points.
1. Schoolboys reps carry their 6 points for 2 years instead of dropping to 4 points in their second year out of School - Meh
2. Max of 50% discount and applicable only after 8 years or > 8 games with the club (or assume 8 games with their Rep team (assume Soup Franchise). It will be interesting how this pans out. This could potentially introduce some serious challenges into the annual "branch stacking" we see at finals time when the 5 years service veterans used to return from their professional duties at at 0 points..
Before 8 years long service, the Wob will be worth 16 points (20 - 4 points max discount as a local) and the Soup player will be worth 12 points. After 8 years this will reduce to 10 points and 8 points with a 50% discount.
Hypothetical Team Example
4 Wallabies and 4 Soup Players at max discount will cost (running on) 72 of your 100 points.
The Club has 28 points for the other 7 players.
Two 50 Cap 1st Grade Caps players (with 50% 8 years long service discount) will cost the club a further 10 points. 18 points for the 5 remaining players.
Two further players who have played > 35 1st grade games with only 2 years loyal service with the club = 6 -2 points each = 8 points leaving 10 points for the remaining 3 players, who can all be new to the club at 2 points each with no discount.
Team Jarse has 4 Wallabies, 4 Soup Players, and two 50 Cap veterans (all at > 8 yrs service) 2 players with 2 years at the club but more than 35 1st grade games, and 3 up and comers poached from another club but outside the 2 year penalty for Schoolboys representation and still yet to play 35 1st grade games. Bench have all played 2nd grade so are not fresh.
Team Jarse = 96 points and compliant.
3. I feel sorry for a fellow who does a Shoulder in round 6 and is out for the season with Team Rehab. That season they will be deemed to have not counted as being a long serving member of that club.
4. It will become harder but not impossible to warehouse an Australian Schoolboy in 2nds Colts (and possibly run him on as a 0 points "tired" reserve in 1st Grade).
5. Fresh Reserve discount = 100%. Perhaps the fresh reserve must have had to have played for > 3/4 of the lower grade game time to qualify as a 0 point player. 50% discount to their score if the non-fresh reserve has played a full half of lower grade rugby, and they are classified as a fresh reserve if they played less than a full half of lower grade footy.
Bruce it's going to be interesting, are you going to share your views on how it plays out?
My thoughts - I can see a number of clubs being affected. Clubs chasing school boys for a quick return may possibly quickly run into a brick wall.
Clubs who have been developing and working to a program for some time can share and develop players through grade.
I'd like to see rewards for clubs who work with developing mini's and juniors but don't have an example ready.
I reckon Uni have nothing to worry about under the "revised" system.
While they have acquired plenty of talented players primarily in Colts (and retained them into Grade), I can't recall them ever falling foul of the points cap. Their unpaid interns seem to be able to count to 40, and fill in a form correctly.
IIRC only Easts and Wicks (once each, and both in Colts) have ever fallen foul of the points cap, although the "non-fresh"reserves loophole comes in for a bit of criticism from time to time.
There is still incentive to get kids while they are young, and invest in those young'uns to develop and retain them as they progress through the system.
The furphy signing a kid up for State Champs U16/U17 games only may fall foul of the 8 games for the club constituting a season rule, and therefore may not earn a 1 point discount for that year/s "previously played for the club".
I think most clubs will need to get the abacus out just to make sure that they comply. l
Dave, I have around 47 sporting clubs at the University to concern myself with. The Uni Rugby Club has three full time coaches so they can worry about how to work with the new system.
As for other clubs I have mentioned unintended consequences. There is so much potential for complexity in how clubs and aspiring players react that prediction is impossible.
I do think that clubs will be more successful to the extent that they have someone with an eye for good cattle who may have been passed over in the Schoolboys selection process.
Much as it pains me to give my own club up, Huge, I think that Uni did get caught in the first season of the points system. As I recall it, a First Colts player whose name eludes me took sick during the warm up. As a result Luke Jones, still a schoolboy but already having played Australian Schools, took his place. If the player who took sick had staggered on to the field, waited until the kick off and then immediately come off, Jones would have been entitled to replace him. Uni argued that they had not attempted to rort the system.
Dave, yes you're right -- that didn't occur to me until I was in the car driving home!
We'll have to see how it pans out but I think it's unlikely there will be much impact at all in 1st grade.
Bruce, not sure why you see the points systems as a crude attempt to nobble Uni. My understanding was that it was intended to (1) spread the available talent more evenly across the clubs and make the SS more interesting = bums on seats and (2) encourage clubs to develop their own juniors rather than poaching from other clubs (I'm not suggesting Uni do this). Surely these would be good for the SS?
Good analysis Hugh!
The only other point is that players can never be discounted to less than 50% of their points for any reason ie not just for long service. So even a category F player can never have less than 1 point. In fact no player will ever have zero points if I'm interpreting this correctly.
With reference to colts
Dave,how many points are Colts 1&2 allowed?
Could you fit all your returning Colts from last year in Colts 1st grade this year?
Apologies, tc. I withdraw the word "crude".
ILtW i enjoy watching games, and my kids use this sort of paper for drawing.
The way i read it at a glance 1st = 40 & 2nds = 30.
The returning colts have to fit under, same rule applies for all clubs.
Alex Northam, and Rhys Dombkins are up in grade, and Lala is down with the Rebels, however there are 6 U20's on the tahs roster - Rory O'Connor, Siotame Kavapalu, Matt Philip, Ellis Abrahams, Benson Fakai and Fabian Natoli + Reece Hodge who suffered the ankle injury in last years GF.
Last year Natoli, and Northam spent some time up in grade - maybe clubs look at balancing / promoting with grade as they start developing more players.
Moving away from points totals, what are the trial games this weekend? Rats have Norths at Rat Park.
Eastwood v Randwick at TGMilner.
Grade on main ground, Colts on #2
Gordon vs The Central Coast Academy at Mingara
Separate names with a comma.