Not sure what your point is, other than to say that our future is in the hands of a bunch of people who do not give a shite for our problems.
It seems pretty inevitable to me that the choice is a simple one. Either the IRB flys in the face of the fogeys of the Home Countries, and makes radical changes both to the laws of the game and the way the game is refereed (which is extremely unlikely), or we, the Kiwis, and the Pacific Nations take matters into our own hands. Argentina would probably join us, and the Saffers would whinge, whine, and prevaricate and join us too.
No, they absolutely wouldn't.
Let me first make this assumption: you're suggesting that we form some kind of breakaway international competition. There are so many things that are completely decrepit in this line of thinking I barely know where to start.
But let's work our way backwards through your fantasy world:
South Africa has too many ties to European club rugby - up to half its playing squad - to cut that off. It would probably be the straw that breaks that particular camel's back in terms of their part in SANZAR. South African provinces can be huge drawcards in a European competition, where the financial stability of the Super teams can compete with even the richest French club owner.
The time zone fits perfectly for prime time, and the flight time also compares favourably. Its about the same from Jo'burg to Perth as it is to London or Paris. Not to mention that the European broadcasters - paying in pounds or Euro, are going to get very favourable exchanges rates for their end of the deal. And South African rugby suits the 6N style of play down to the ground.
For the same reason - club links - Argentina would baulk at any suggestion they join a breakaway competition that threatens the status of their international players outside a defined World Rugby window. They're not going to bite the hand that feeds, just because the quality of rugby is "better".
New Zealand wouldn't have a pot to piss in once sponsors decided that exposure to 10 million people in a trans-Tasman competition is worth fuck all globally. They are absolutely zero chance of dissolving SANZAR for the same reason Argentina is: its their cash cow. The All Blacks are the only profit-making enterprise and if you take them out of the defined global sphere then their value crashes and it threatens the game in that country.
Remember that NZ sat on its hands and said very little during the Super Rugby expansion talks about Singapore or Japan, because they wanted to see which way the wind blew. South African were vocal about travel times, but NZ didn't care as long as their slice of the pie grew accordingly.
And then of course there is us. I've no doubt that a trans-Tasman + Pasifika system would be of great benefit to us and the Pacific nations. But fuck, if NZ doesn't join (and they wouldn't) who is going to sponsor this pipe dream you've come up with?
What you're essentially suggesting is we create the NRL in rugby form, but without any of the available capital from a small group of broadcast networks who are already invested across several sporting arenas, haemorrhaging money in their current enterprises, and barely interested in the Wallabies as-is.
Having typed that last paragraph, I'm less than surprised, given your well-documented leanings toward the NRL on this forum.
FFS.
Here's what we SHOULD do, from the graduate course I've running at the Pfitzy Institute of Stop Pissing About (PISPA):
- Put a serious fucking scrum school together
- Tell all the fucking school systems that they're fucked, and get all the GPS / ISA / CHS / ABC / DoReMi all fucking playing together for schools rugby
- Tell the 435 fucking Unions that are set up in this fucking country to sort their fucking shit out and start reading from the same fucking playbook
- Once they do, dissolved about 400 of the fuckers
- Tell RUPA that if rugby stops, they stop, so they'd better start pulling their fucking head in on player salaries.
- Put a broom through the ARU management and get someone in there who knows sport
- Get someone like BarTV to start broadcasting games with suitable commentary
- Hold over every ***t in the mix the threat of of Government funding withdrawal unless they stop being political arseholes about everything*
- If players or their agents threaten to go overseas or to the NRL, then fuck it - let them. The game is bigger than that, and there is enough talent to fill the gaps.
There is probably more but the institute only got going this year.
* The irony will be delicious - politicians telling people to stop being political because it turns people into arseholes. It insults both the rugby people and the politicians. I'm a thinker.
